Sunday, August 1, 2021

What we wish we knew about finance when we were 20

Lucilius recall when he was really young, how he could dream about having a big money bin not unlike Scrooge McDuck and how he was playing around with Excel (or something alike, on his Commodore Amiga 500) and did the 'rich by Excel' exercise. The young Lucilius somehow understood that if one just keep compounding with 10 percent annually, one could get into high numbers quite quickly.

Antinous once won a bunch of money at the age of 12, and he went to buy index funds and stocks for it.

So there was some interests in investing. 

But then we lost all interested in it. 

At 20, none of us had connected the dots of investing and financial freedom yet.

A clueless Antinous
By Ricardo André Frantz, CC BY-SA 3.0

What was it that we didn't understand?

Here are three things we wish we knew back then.

1. Fair investment doesn't require unacceptable risk
One can become financially independent as normal, working people without taking crazy risks (such as starting a company based on a wild idea, hitting gold with a film or book contract, the odd aunt that dies leaving a huge estate, or wild speculation on the moods of the stock market or even riskier schemes). 

In other words, there's a way to become financially independent that is methodical and will get anyone who has the right dedication to the goal. We had no clue about that.

A part from the more crazy ideas, we also looked at the stock market, not to mention, stock picking, as way too risky. 

And not without reason. We're still not convinced that the stock market alone, by default, is the right place to be to get a good return on risk.

The biggest hurdle with investing, and especially with stocks, we felt, was timing issues. Timing would make us always prone to question if it was the right time to buy, or if we should wait. 

We also recall from our youth how stock picking seemed to be some kind of social signalling among middle-brow realtives, and the whole affair just smelled stupid to us.

We were partly right. But we draw the wrong conclusions, and stopped caring about investments all together.

But then, we found that there are ways of investing that has a fair price on risk (around 7% after inflation), and where the historical drawdowns have been much more acceptable (3-5 years until recovery) and faires well in most economic conditions. 

Our solution to getting a fair (and good) price on risk, and to reach financial independence, that met the criteria above was the permanent portfolio

There are other strategies, but our portfolio for accumulation was our way to wrestle volatility, and it got us the goal both quickly AND safely.

And it worked.

So there was a way for us to get into investing without feeling that we did something akin to go to the horse track and bet all our earnings on Thunder.

2. Money is worth attention
When we got into our careers, we felt that this money thing was something for people occupied with buying big houses, fancy cars, a new pool to aforementioned house, and so on.

Nothing for us. Both of us where bewildered with work itself at that stage, and we didn't feel like we participated in the social game. 

It might be that being gay helps in questioning the social norms, but we guess that the questioning of norms is not limited to that.

Granted, we were always somewhat frugal, but we didn't know exactly why. It just felt like a reasonable thing to be.

So while we were frugal, we kind of felt that the pursuit of money was somehow beneath us. 

Money flowed in and we put it in a bank account and that was that, and we didn't pay any extra attention to the whole affair. 

We didn't understand that it's worth paying attention to money. Because the bewilderment about work is standing on a more shaky foundation than our 20-25-years selves understood.

That brings us to the last point.

3. Financial Independence Is Achievable Quickly
As many a 25-years-old, we liked our careers. 

We didn't have in our minds that there could be issues with having our careers as our financial security. 

But, we suspect, there is a built-in identity crisis and false security in work-life. Things weren't as rosy and safe as we thought. In a way, we were lucky enough to discover in time that a career was not quite that reliable. Just hope that the paycheck would come rolling in the whole life is not the same thing as financial safety.

Something more was needed. And that 'something' was second-level-stuff. Like a big money-bin, which in a way is the second level thing to a paycheck. And better values and virtues, which are second-level-stuff to a work identity. 

And freedom in early middle age, which is a second level thing to the slavery of work life.

Connecting the dots

And that was when the equation started to make sense.

We were back to where we started, with that Excel sheet and the investments. But this time we had learnt what to do.  

So to our 20-year old selves we would say; 
  • invest with a good price on risk, 
  • pay attention to money and save up and put them to work,
  • and the path to independence will be much shorter than one might think
Farewell,

//antinous&lucilius

No comments:

Post a Comment